The Wiseman newspaper study is one of the better pieces of luck research out there. The practical translation for founders: high deployment velocity isn't just about speed — it's about surface area. A team that ships 10 experiments a quarter has 10x the collision opportunities of one that ships one 'perfect' launch. The 'lucky' companies aren't luckier. They just have more at-bats, and they're paying attention when something unexpected shows up in the data.
I hear you on the importance of sustained effort. But luck has two variables, not one. In mountaineering we have a definition of luck as "opportunity meets preparation". You need to prepare for the mountain but you also need the weather window to summit. I summited Denali because I was prepared and we had a gorgeous weather window, but a team of Navy Seals had to turn around the week before because of bad weather.
I like Annie Duke's description of the cognitive bias around luck vs. skill attribution in professional poker (she's also a psychologist). Turns out, we are biased to attribute our positive outcomes to skill and our negative outcomes to bad luck. When it comes to judging others, the bias flips - now we attribute their success to "luck" (exactly what you talk about) and their failures as lack of skill.
Both luck and skill are real forces. It's up to us to develop a discipline to understand what role each has in our successes and failures. That's the only way we can truly learn what works and what is outside of our control.
The Wiseman newspaper study is one of the better pieces of luck research out there. The practical translation for founders: high deployment velocity isn't just about speed — it's about surface area. A team that ships 10 experiments a quarter has 10x the collision opportunities of one that ships one 'perfect' launch. The 'lucky' companies aren't luckier. They just have more at-bats, and they're paying attention when something unexpected shows up in the data.
Thank you! I needed to see this today to encourage me in maintaining momentum.
I hear you on the importance of sustained effort. But luck has two variables, not one. In mountaineering we have a definition of luck as "opportunity meets preparation". You need to prepare for the mountain but you also need the weather window to summit. I summited Denali because I was prepared and we had a gorgeous weather window, but a team of Navy Seals had to turn around the week before because of bad weather.
I like Annie Duke's description of the cognitive bias around luck vs. skill attribution in professional poker (she's also a psychologist). Turns out, we are biased to attribute our positive outcomes to skill and our negative outcomes to bad luck. When it comes to judging others, the bias flips - now we attribute their success to "luck" (exactly what you talk about) and their failures as lack of skill.
Both luck and skill are real forces. It's up to us to develop a discipline to understand what role each has in our successes and failures. That's the only way we can truly learn what works and what is outside of our control.