Growth Ritual #69
📋 IN THIS ISSUE: The Future of Work and Insights from Renowned Figures
The Future of Work and Insights from Renowned Figures
The impact of rapidly advancing technology on our lives is undeniable. But its effect on our jobs is a dimension that, according to many experts, heralds a storm that will eclipse everything we've seen before.
So, with this storm at our doorstep, to whom should we listen, and what should we hear? Job losses, rising unemployment rates, and a brand-new economic order are among the most urgent scenarios highlighted by experts.
I want to delve into who is saying what on this matter, what the current situation indicates, and explore this in detail in this issue.
The Most Heard Experts
There are individuals whose voices are most frequently heard regarding how artificial intelligence will transform the labor market, appearing repeatedly in various news outlets.
These individuals might be presented to us as part of a marketing strategy, or they might be part of a scenario attempting to impose a desired future on society.
In either case, it's essential to hear these voices and try to understand why they resonate with us:
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO): He formally warns that AI could eliminate half of entry-level white-collar jobs within the next 1 to 5 years, causing unemployment to skyrocket to between 10-20%. He states that most people, and even lawmakers, are unaware of this massive shift.
Anthropic Employees: They believe that even with current AI capabilities (without further breakthroughs), it's possible for all white-collar jobs to be automated within the next 5 years. This is because it translates to significant cost savings for companies.
Avital Balwit (Anthropic Head of Administrative Affairs): Just 11 months ago, she stated that the next 3 years could be the last years of work. Why? Because she believes technological changes could end employment as we know it. She particularly expects AI to first peak in online jobs such as copywriting, tax preparation, and customer service.
Mustafa Suleyman (DeepMind Co-founder): While AI may augment human capabilities in the short term, he notes that in the long term, it is a "labor-replacing tool." This means it has the potential to replace us rather than merely complement us.
Sam Altman (OpenAI CEO): In a private meeting, he stated that over 70% of jobs could be eliminated by AI. Yes, technological revolutions have changed jobs in the past, but Altman emphasizes that the "potential speed" of AI is vastly different and much faster. Nevertheless, he remains hopeful that people will find new and better jobs, but he underlines the necessity for society to adapt quickly.
Aravind Srinivas (Perplexity AI CEO): He calls the significant job loss due to AI the "dystopian side" of progress. He states that fewer people are needed and that even large technology companies are laying off employees or not hiring new ones.
Emad Mostaque (Former Stability AI CEO): He likens AI-driven job losses to a "sandpile collapse". This implies a gradual, then sudden and large-scale wave of layoffs, including entry-level positions.
Tristan Harris (Center for Humane Technology Co-founder): He warns that an unchecked AI development race could lead to major economic instability and societal collapse. Therefore, he advocates for much better AI governance.
Are the Feared Outcomes Already Beginning?
These warnings are not just talk; there seem to be concrete indicators in today's business world:
Companies Are Not Hiring Entry-Level Employees: An article shared by UBI Works reveals that companies are now turning to AI instead of new graduates. The unemployment rate for recent university graduates has risen to 5.8%. Even the increase in law school applications resembles behavior seen during the 2008 Economic Crisis.
Even Barack Obama Is Concerned: Former President Obama shared an article about how the AI job apocalypse might have begun for new graduates, emphasizing the importance of public discussions on the matter. He stated that we need to discuss options like shorter workweeks or Universal Basic Income (UBI).
"AI-First" Transformation: Companies are now prioritizing doing their work with AI first. The goal is to save costs and increase efficiency.
Fiverr CEO (Micha Kaufman): His email to employees reportedly caused shockwaves: "AI is coming for your job. For all jobs, even mine." He emphasized that everyone needs to quickly master AI tools in their respective fields to become "exceptional talent" and "masters", or their careers could change within months.
Business Insider's Breaking Point: The layoff of one-fifth of its workforce, or 21%, is one of the clearest examples of this "AI-first" change.
Robot Revolution at Amazon: They have already started using robots like "Cardinal" (package arranging) and "Proteus" (moving carts) in their warehouses. Their goal is to "eliminate all low-level, mundane, and repetitive tasks," including those performed by warehouse workers.
What Does the World Economic Forum Say? Predictions for 2025
The World Economic Forum's "Future of Jobs Report 2025" presents important data:
What Employers Expect: 86% of employers believe that AI and big data analytics will transform the business world.
Which Jobs Will Disappear? Significant losses are expected, especially in administrative and clerical jobs like data entry clerks, cashiers, and telemarketers.
What About New Jobs? While 92 million jobs could be lost, an estimated 170 million new jobs could emerge in AI, green technologies, and healthcare.
Skills Gap: 63% of employers see a talent shortage as a major obstacle. This means it's essential for us to develop ourselves and acquire new skills!
Professions of the Future (by 2030): FinTech engineers, AI and machine learning specialists, software developers, security management specialists.
Declining Professions (by 2030): Postal clerks, bank tellers, data entry clerks, printing press workers, accountants.
Which Jobs Are at Risk, Which Are Safe?
Highest Risk (Immediately Affected): Entry-level white-collar jobs in fields like technology, finance, law, and consulting. These typically involve routine tasks such as data processing, document review, and basic analysis. Customer service and copywriting (especially those done remotely) are also highly at risk. In short, any job that can be done online and has standard processes is more vulnerable.
Safer in the Short Term: Jobs requiring physical skills, complex human interaction, or highly specialized expertise. For example, plumbers, hairdressers, consultants, or high-level strategic jobs appear safer for now.
The Biggest Challenge: The Incredible Speed of Change
The AI revolution, unlike past technological changes, is not taking decades; it's happening at lightning speed.
Sam Altman also highlights this speed, stating that even normal economic adjustment processes cannot keep up.
As Anthropic's Head of Administrative Affairs says, AI's ability to "automate automation" further accelerates its own development.
So, What Should We Do as Individuals?
The most crucial advice is this: Don't try to compete with AI tools; learn to work with them.
Master AI tools relevant to your field.
NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang has a frequently repeated, almost cliché, but very true saying: "You won't lose your job to AI, but you will lose your job to someone who uses AI".
Learn to effectively guide AI systems, understanding their strengths and weaknesses. And most importantly, focus on combining AI's capabilities with uniquely human skills like creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex problem-solving.
The future is approaching rapidly, and the impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce seems inevitable.
The real question is: How prepared are we for this significant change? How do we plan to position ourselves and our work?
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